Smarter Politics

In this episode, we discuss part one of our recently released survey of likely 2018 voters in Colorado. Segment 1: Survey of Likely 2018 Voters in Colorado We begin by discussing decisions about survey weighting, and why we chose to weight the survey as we did. Simply put, a survey of likely 2018 voters is far more relevant for any political observer than a survey of registered voters. Among likely 2018 voters, 47% approve and 49% disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President. Among unaffiliated voters, 40% approve and 53% disapprove of the job he is doing. While these numbers could certainly be worse, we discuss how Republican candidates in Colorado would like to see stronger numbers for the President, since in a lot of ways the 2018 election will amount to a referendum on his first two years in office. The generic Congressional ballot shows that voters prefer the Democrat candidate to the Republican candidate by a 5-point margin, 39% to 34% respectively. Among unaffiliated voters, the generic De

In this episode, we discuss the recent round of polls showing voter opinion of President Trump’s first 100 days. How important are these polls, how relevant are they to the 2018 midterm elections, and what are some important indicators? We then briefly discuss France’s Presidential election, the polling, and what it suggests for the future of European politics.  Segment 1: President Trump’s First 100 Days The last week has brought us two major polls, one from NBC News/Wall Street Journal and another from The Washington Post/ABC News, revealing public opinion of President Trump’s first 100 days in office. The two polls find similar measurements of Trump’s job approval, at 40% and 42%, respectively, and the NBC News Wall Street Journal survey found that 45% of respondents believe that the President is off to a “poor start.” Much of analysis in the media has focused on historical comparisons. NBC notes that at this same point, President Obama’s approval rating was 61%, George W. Bush’s was 56% and President

In this episode, we take a break from current events and discuss the fundamental steps of putting together a successful data driven political campaign. We walk through all the steps that we follow for our clients so you have a better understanding of how data and campaign strategy come together.  The Steps to Run a Successful Data Driven Political Campaign Review voter registration and past voter turnout demographics for the state or district. This exercise will tell you what voter subgroups are a priority and which ones are not. If you work with Magellan you will also be able access our modeled voter data to identify the “True Middle” voters that will likely decide the election. After compiling voter data and identifying subgroups of voters that are important, you can put together a budget. This is very important, because you will learn how much money you need to raise and what you can afford to do. We strongly recommend putting together the budget using a gantt chart format. This format will help you know

In this episode, we take a look at some special elections being held around the country, and explore what they may reveal about the 2018 midterm elections. We also check in on Colorado’s Democratic candidates for governor, now that two more have made it official. Segment 1: What’s So Special About Special Elections? Campaign watchers don’t have to wait long to attempt to gauge exactly how much Donald Trump will affect midterm elections around the country next year, as three special congressional elections will take place in the next two months: Kansas CD 4, Georgia CD 6, and Montana’s at-large Congressional seat. FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten has a great analysis of what typically happens in special elections here. Basically, special congressional election results don’t vary all that much from the previous presidential vote in the district. Historically, the president’s party does a bit worse than its previous performance, and obviously how much worse depends upon the President’s current popularity. With

In this episode we take an early look at the candidates in Colorado’s 2018 Democratic Gubernatorial Primary and consider the possibility that Colorado’s major parties might opt-out of Proposition 108. Segment 1: Assessing the Candidates With the announcement by Ken Salazar that he will not run, the field in Colorado’s Democratic Primary for Governor is becoming a bit clearer. Congressman Ed Perlmutter has to be considered the frontrunner at this point. Though he has not officially announced, he has stated as recently as last month that “chances are very good” he will run. Perlmutter, as a Congressman since 2007, would also seem to be a preferred candidate of the establishment, along with former State Treasurer Cary Kennedy if she decides to jump into the race. The question is: Does that help or hurt in a Democratic Primary? Clearly, there is a divide within the Colorado Democratic Party between the more establishment Democrats who backed Hillary Clinton, and the Bernie Sanders wing of the party. Sanders d

In this episode, we discuss the failed Obamacare repeal and the implications it has going forward, both among the Republican party’s base and among 2018 general election voters. Segment 1: What Went Wrong, What Next? While the specific blame has been spread pretty much everywhere in Republican circles in Washington, there are clearly major differences among House Republicans that may have doomed the effort from the beginning. Both the Freedom Caucus and moderate Republicans were critical of the bill, and each time concessions were made to one group, Congressional leaders lost support from the other. In the end, as the New York Times helpfully details, both groups kept the bill from reaching the 215 votes needed to pass. While the fight over the bill exposed the fault lines in Washington, a new HuffPost/YouGov survey shows that few voters strongly supported it, and that 44% of voters want the Republicans to move on to other issues. The fact is that the bill was never that popular among voters, and so

In this episode, we discuss recent European election polling misses and how their polling challenges are different than the polling challenges we face in United States elections. Segment 1: Recent Misses for European Election Polls Following the first presidential debate in France’s upcoming Presidential election and with the first round of voting only a month away, U.S. interest in the French election is only going to increase. HuffPost Pollster is now tracking polls for the first round of voting, showing what is likely to be a run-off between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen which Macron is projected to win easily. While the outcome of the election will certainly be worth watching to determine the true extent Europe’s populist wave, we want to take this opportunity to discuss some of the recent misses in European polling, and what we can learn from them.   If the aftermath of last June’s Brexit vote (51.9% leave/48.1% Remain), a lot of British news coverage focused on whether the polls had been wron

In this episode we discuss our survey of Republican primary voters in Colorado, where they stand on President Trump and his policies, and how they fit into the battle over how best to fix Colorado’s roads. Segment 1: Colorado’s Republican Primary Voters We conducted an internal automated survey of Colorado’s Republican primary voters last week, to find out where they stand on President Trump, his policies, and other state-level issues. The first major finding is that these voters are completely on board with President Trump – 87% have a favorable opinion of him, and his job approval is 86%. Those numbers hold strong among all of the major demographic groups, with even 60% of self-identified moderate Republicans approving of the job he is doing. This stands in stark contrast to the job approval rating for Republicans in Congress, which at just 48% is very low considering that the respondents are all Republican Primary voters. Three out of four respondents who disapprove of Congressional Republicans approve of

In this episode we discuss President Trump’s address to Congress last week, check in on the public polling data after one month of the Trump administration, and take a look at the Obamacare replacement bill released by House GOP leadership last night. Segment 1: Presidential Address to Congress President Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday night was widely praised as his first “presidential” moment, a moment that voters watching at home seem to have responded to. A CNN/ORC poll of voters who watched the speech showed 57% of respondents with a very positive reaction to the speech, a number that exceeded the reaction to all of President Obama’s State of the Union speeches except for his very first in February 2009. While 58% of respondents thought that President Trump would move the country in the right direction before the speech, after the speech that number shot up to 69%. That’s a data point that the Trump White House has to love seeing. And not surprisingly, that same percentage, 69%, say that Donald

In this episode we focus on Colorado’s Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, or TABOR, twenty-five years after its approval. Does TABOR still enjoy majority support among Colorado voters? What are the factors that influence support and opposition for TABOR? What have been the positive and negative impacts? Segment 1: All About TABOR Last Friday, the Denver Post editorial board published a piece outlining their argument for why TABOR needs to be reformed. Yet even in doing so they acknowledge the obstacles facing any attempts at reform, not the least of which is that there is no political will to do so. TABOR still enjoys widespread support among Colorado voters, which we found here at Magellan in a 2016 statewide survey on general issues facing our state. While Democrats generally support eliminating TABOR, Republican voters and the increasingly large bloc of unaffiliated voters enjoy the direct-democracy of TABOR and the constraints it places on all levels of government. Still, those constraints do not come without c

In this episode we take an early look at the potential candidates in Colorado’s 2018 Republican Gubernatorial Primary, and how they are positioning themselves in a crowded field, and how President Trump’s policies, and the support he still holds among a large majority of the Republican base, will impact the race. Republican Candidates for Governor – Colorado 2018 State Treasurer Walker Stapleton – If one candidate could be called a front-runner at this point, it’s Stapleton.  Over the years he has been a public face for several issue campaigns, including No on Amendment 69 and just recently a U.S. Term Limits campaign to put term limits on members of Congress. He has also crisscrossed the state as a leader of the movement to reform Colorado’s Public Employees’ Retirement Association (PERA), and has long said that the system needs reforming to address the growing unfunded liability of the pension fund. The end result is that he probably has the best name ID among Republican Primary voters, and is seen as a

In this episode we continue our discussion of the anti-Trump movement by taking a look at Elizabeth Warren’s potential impact on the 2018 Midterm elections around the country. We then move on to a discussion of the current polarization in the Colorado statehouse, whether it is simply the “new normal” given the state of our political parties and to what extent it can be attributed to President Trump’s actions. Segment 1: Elizabeth Warren, The Race for DNC Chairmanship and the Future of the Democrat Party Much has been made about Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s use of Senate rules to prevent Senator Elizabeth Warren from reading a letter written by Coretta Scott King during the debate over the nomination of Jeff Sessions for Attorney General. The move has been described as a terrible blunder and as carefully planned strategy, and everything in between. Which side you fall on depends upon how you view Senator Warren – is she a champion of progressive values who shows the way to future Democratic succ

In this episode we discuss the possibilities of the Women’s March growing into a political force like the 2010 Tea Party movement.  Segment 1: The Tea Party Brought New Voters Into Republican Primaries…Will the Women’s March Do the Same for Democrats? Across the country, Tea Party candidates have been successful in Republican Primaries since 2010 by appealing to voters who are not traditional Republicans and do not traditionally vote in primaries. Two clear examples of this phenomenon include: Rand Paul in Kentucky in 2010, who was unpopular among a large number of Republican voters (Grayson’s Supporters, PPP, May 18, 2010) and Congressman Dave Brat who famously defeated House majority leader Eric Cantor (GOP pollsters missed big in Va., Politico, June 12th, 2014). If we see a lasting impact from the women’s marches, we may see the beginnings of the impact in Democratic primaries beginning in 2018. For an interesting article on how the women’s marches may impact Democratic Party politics, see this article f

There are three segments in this episode. The first segment discusses the political fallout from the Trump Administration’s executive order to increase security vetting for travelers coming into the United States from Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya, Yemen and Somalia for 90 days. We also discuss how members of Congress are positioning themselves around this decision. The second segment is a discussion about historical voter opinion research showing a majority of Americans opposing proposals allowing refugees to enter the country. The third segment discusses the decision of White House Counselor Stephen Bannon’s to attack on the national media in an interview with the New York Times.  Segment #1 – Donald Trump’s Executive Order on Muslim Immigration Ban  The executive order increases scrutiny on travelers from seven predominantly Muslim countries, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Sudan, Libya, Yemen and Somalia for 90 days. The executive order also bans Syrian refugees indefinitely from entering the United States, and the whole

In this episode, we discuss Donald Trump’s job approval numbers according to a poll by Gallup. The Gallup article also discusses how Donald Trump’s approval rating compares to other Presidents at the start of their first terms. The show also covers some basic polling fundamentals. Finally, we discuss what the political impact of the Women’s March on Washington and other marches on January 21sr could have on Colorado and national politics. Segment #1 – Presidential Job Approval Link to Gallup article “Trump Sets New Low Point for Inaugural Approval Rating” by Lydia Saad, January 23rd, 2017, http://ow.ly/jbsV308jJtf   Segment #2 Women’s March Link to Women’s March on Washington website - https://www.womensmarch.com/

In this episode, we discuss the findings of two recent surveys from the Pew Research Center and Politico/Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Both surveys measured public support and opposition for repealing Obamacare/Affordable Care Act. The Politico survey also measured public opinion of immigration reform, increased infrastructure spending, increased defense spending, tax cuts for individuals and corporations and filling the vacancy on the Supreme Court. Segment #1 – Discussing the Politico/Harvard Survey We discuss the methodology of the Politico/Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health survey. It was fielded in mid-December among adult population of 18 and older, not registered voters. 1,023 total interviews for a margin of error of +/- 3.6%. The Politico/Harvard survey measured public opinion of: Enthusiasm for President-Elect Trump’s Priorities Repeal & Replacing Obamacare The Future of Medicare Immigration Policy Tax Cuts & Economic Benefits Infrastructure Investment Creating a More Co

In this episode, we discuss the top 10 issues facing the Colorado legislature in 2017. For this show we reference an article in the Denver Post, “The Top 10 Issues Facing Colorado Lawmakers in the 2017 Session”, published January 8th by Brian Eason and John Frank. Segment #1 - The Trump Effect Will legislators try to adopt the style and tone of Donald Trump even though he lost Colorado to Hillary Clinton by 137,000 votes?  We think this is a bad idea, but some legislators will not get the hint. Segment #2 - Fixing Colorado’s Crowded Crumbling Roads Transportation is going to be an issue that voters want addressed. The big question is if Democrats and Republicans can come together and put something on the ballot this November for voters to approve. Segment #3 - The 2018 Governor’s Race What the legislature is able to accomplish or fail to accomplish in the 2017 session will impact the primary and general elections in 2018. However, other than Senator Ray Scott, there are not many players in the legislature tha

In this episode, we discuss our findings from a 500n post-election survey of unaffiliated voters and what to expect in the early part of 2017. Segment #1 – Discussing Our 500n Colorado Post Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters Among voters 44 and younger who tend to vote for Democratic candidates, human rights, civil rights, LGBT rights, abortion rights, the cost of education and the environment were the most important issues. Older Democrat-leaning voters cared more about climate change, immigration reform, jobs and healthcare. Republican-leaning voters cared about immigration, securing our borders, gun rights, jobs and the economy, national security and healthcare. Overall, only 37% of respondents were satisfied and 59% were unsatisfied with their choices for President. Additionally, younger, Democrat-leaning voters were very unsatisfied with their choices for President. Among Hillary Clinton voters, 75% were unsatisfied with their choices, compared to only 28% of Donald Trump supporters who were unsat

In this episode, we discuss the evolving Democrat strategy to stop the Trump Administration’s agenda. Segment #1 – Voter Registration Trends in Colorado From December 1st, 2015 to December 1st 2016, voter registration increased by 324,153. Among those registered voters, 40% identified as Democrat, 28% as unaffiliated, 26% as Republican and 6% with a minor party. Millennials, or voters that are 18 to 34 years old, make up 31% of all registered voters in Colorado. They are the largest voting block by age. Voters identifying as Republican continues decline in comparison to Democrat and unaffiliated registration. Segment #2 – 2016 Voter Turnout in Colorado For the first time ever in Colorado, unaffiliated and “other party” voters made up a larger part of voter turnout than the Democrat and Republican parties. The Republican turnout advantage over Democrats declined by from 45,543 in 2012 to 19,020 in 2016, a drop of 26,523 voters. Turnout as a percentage of all registered (active and inactive) voters in increa

In this episode, we discuss the evolving Democrat strategy to stop the Trump Administration’s agenda. Segment #1 – What is Being Reported by Media About Democrat Soul Searching Democrats have lost the support of traditional working families Donald Trump talked more about the struggling economy and how to fix it New York Times Article reference: Democrats Hone a New Message: It’s the Economy, Everyone by Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin Time Magazine article reference: Inside Democrats’ Plan to Beat Donald Trump at His Own Game by Sam Frizell Segment #2 – What Policy Proposals Should Democrats Oppose? This segment discusses anticipated policy proposals and reforms that Donald Trump will need to work with Congress, which ones he will not need Congress, and ones that he may need Congress. New York Times article reference: Trump to Fulfill His 100-Day Plan by Larry Buchanan, Alicia Parlapiano and Karen Yourish, Nov. 21, 2016 What is the current state of the Republican Party in Colorado? What is the curren