Sa For Fas

Janus Henderson Investors asks, “Would you lend to this man?” – with the man in question being Uncle Sam. That is a very important question, but one that is too easy to dismiss, as formulated. Ask instead, “Who will bail out this man?” and perhaps we’ll arouse greater interest. The reason is that Uncle Sam and his fraternity of ne’er-do-wells across the world will get the last laugh, or at least the last tax.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Pundits are pondering whether the U.S. and China will come to terms on trade and if Theresa May will eke out a Brexit that avoids market chaos. These are interesting questions. But the real question for investors is: Have you positioned your portfolio for both profit and protection – no matter what’s going on in the news?Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The top three news stories spooking investors are ToXiC -- with the T for Trade, Brexit in the middle and OPEC at the end. Pundits will be telling you to sell, but investors should follow their own individual plan, not the herd. There is however one group for whom a toxic market may indeed be problematic, and that is retirees or those on the cusp of retirement. Their need for retirement income may force them to sell shares at the worst possible time toxic news topples the market.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Riots in France are said to be the worst riots that country has seen since the 1960s. In a twist on Frantz Fanon, the new wretched of the earth are apparently the non-rich native population. And yet Credit Suisse just ranked France among the top 5 wealth wealthiest countries, on the basis of median wealth, implying broad wealth distribution. Takeaways: Expect more social disruption, and a push for wealth redistribution. Investors require very wide asset diversification, including cash.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A 2016 Harvard University study showed that a majority of millennial reject capitalism. Drill down today’s CDC report about decreasing U.S. longevity, primarily because of opioid deaths, and you see that millennials have the highest proportion of such deaths, and the highest increase in suicides. Is there a connection?Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jonathan Boyar, president of Boyar’s Intrinsic Value Research, explains his investing approach at a time when market leadership may be shifting to value. If he had to pick a sector exhibiting classic value characteristics, Boyar would focus on bank stocks. He explains the undesirability of investing in energy stocks whose fortunes shift on the price of oil, and why investors could do better than to buy fallen FAANGs. Boyar instead favors stocks left out of the major indexes, and names two that he believesLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Apple CEO Tim Cook calls new tech regulations “inevitable.” He wasn’t too specific, but it seems he had in mind the European Union’s new GDPR regs, which raise the privacy of user data to a much higher level. The impact of these new regulations is not easy to calculate – it ultimately depends on which violations are fined, and by how much. But it may well be that the easy money has already been made in Big Data.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jeff Miller, a prominent Seeking Alpha contributor and also an investment advisor with NewArc Investments, discusses how he goes about gaining clarity about clients’ needs, goals and risk tolerance. He explains how he seeks to protect clients against downside risk, given the reality of strong loss aversion.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tejon Ranch Co. owns the largest piece of private property in the state of California, encompassing 270,000 acres. TRC has been beaten down to just north of its 52-week low because of declining revenues based on poor crop sales, weak crop yields, trade war with China and poor performing joint ventures. But its biggest promise lies in its real estate projects, whose revenues are growing slowly. This suggests that Tejon may have a lot of good news ahead of it and most of the bad news behind it.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Energy is the classic late-market-cycle investment that rises when growth begins to slow and stocks look expensive. What’s more, energy stocks have been subdued since 2014. The market doesn’t seem prepared for a reversal since the three largest energy producers – U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia – are reaching new production highs. A possible catalyst could be Iran, which has vowed to take revenge for U.S. sanctions. Even without geopolitical instability, the current energy supply may simply fail to keLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

By one estimate, progress on the Chinese trade issue could generate a 4-5% move in a single day. So do tweets about trade progress suggest now is the time to scoop up a China ETF? I suggest that the reality of America’s and China’s current roles in the global economy and one key piece of market data do not imply a lucrative China play now.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

MarketWatch quotes the “godfather” of chart analysts forecasting a bear market. If so, why didn’t he offer us this warning before October’s wipe-out? And more to the point, what relevance do daily market movements have to each individual’s unique circumstances, goals and timelines?Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of American Action Forum and formerly a member of George H.W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisors, director of the Congressional Budget Office and chief economic advisor to John McCain’s presidential campaign, shares his thoughts on the cutting economic issues of our time, such as the impact of tax reform on U.S. growth and how the government can deescalate the rampant increase in debt.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Shachar Kariv, a decision theorist at U.C. Berkeley and chairman of its economics department, has the unique distinction of relating behavioral economics in a fashion that is relevant to investment decision makers. In other words, it’s not just academic. In this podcast, he answers such questions as what are the key trade-offs we should consider in making investments; what kind of investor should go to a financial advisor; and who is more important – your advisor or your physician?Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S. administration’s increasingly tough stance on China suggests the U.S.-China dispute is rising to almost Cold War levels. De-escalation will be neither quick nor easy. Whether this was the intention or not, the hard line against Beijing gives the U.S. instant credibility to carry out tough measures on trade. That makes U.S.-China trade an issue that could prompt an immediate market reaction.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Trump responded to yesterday’s market fall with criticism of the Fed. Yet just last week, the president boasted the market had reached a record high, for which he took credit. It seems unwise for the president to intimately entangle himself with stock market performance. Rather, he, Fed chairman Powell and investors alike should concentrate on their jobs, the performance of which is not enhanced by close attention to the stock market.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The fine to which Facebook is subject for last week’s cyber breach could reach $1.63 billion. The small share price decline since news of the breach suggests that investors don’t think regulators will dock the social media giant to the maximum extent. Indeed, Facebook’s quick and complete response suggests that the firm had in place the capabilities to block the hackers. The firm also had plans in place to beef up cybser-security. All in all, the facts of this case seem to warrant regulatory restraintLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A study out this week, from the Dolphin Research Center in the Florida Keys, that shows how dolphins learned to synchronize their behavior in order to earn more fish and social praise. Dolphins understand something that still escapes many human beings, which is that their interests are not really opposed.Maybe dolphins could show how to put more dollars in the average worker’s paycheck to the benefit of all.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Major European companies with London headquarters continue their steady march out of the UK. The Centre for European Reform estimated that the British economy has shrunk by over 2% over the past two years, costing the Exchequer $30 billion – an amount that exceeds the expected dividend that departure from the EU was supposed to yield. Brexit reflects the modern tendency to lurch toward populist goals without any realistic plan as to how to make them work.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Global oil output hit a record last month, and the IEA sees continued increases in oil production. On the other hand, bond king Jeffrey Gundlach sees oil heading as high $80 or $90 a barrel. Who’s right? A story the media is paying little attention to seems to indicate that, overall, oil market risk is rising.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices