Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Offshore / $1.9trillion stimulus bill signed by Biden and on route / Tencent on notice as China cracks down on fintech players / The tech-heavy Nasdaq has underperformed the Dow for four straight weeks — a first since 2016 / Friday 1,357,111 people were screened at U.S. airports, marking the highest number of travellers since the pandemic began. / U.S. 10 Year Treasury hits 1.625 / Huawei listed anew as a threat to US national security Local / GDP for 2020 -7% / SA records first annual surplus in 2020 (last was 2002) / Woolies sells Elizabeth Street Property / MTN results (dividend cancelled) and Ambition 2025 / AfroCentric results / Aspen results see more debt slashed

Simon Shares Ascendis (JSE code: ASC) lenders are flexing their muscle. Back in February L1 Health, Blantyre bought enough debt to be able to block any asset sales and with over R7billion in debt Ascendis desperately needs to sell their European crown jewels. There is now a forbearance agreement in place until the end of April by when the company needs to have sorted out their debt. A rights issue is not an option at current prices so a debt for asset swap with the lenders? This will maybe resolve the debt issue, but then what does that leave Ascendis? Renergen* (JSE code: REN) find a bunch more gas they did not expect to find. Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Growthpoint (JSE code: GRT) office vacancies at 18%. Lots of concern about malls as we're over traded and online shopping. The latter is a very long-term issue, the former will see some die. But office is the real concern. Solid AfroCentric (JSE code: ACT) results. Everybody (well many) love Discovery* (JSE code: DSY) y

Offshore / NFP added 379k jobs (large beat) and US unemployment 6.2% (at this pace it’ll take until April 2023 to get back to where we were in February 2020) / $1.9trillion stimulus bill approved by Senate / China sets 6% 2021 GDP target / Germany charges Steinhoff execs / UK taxes going up to highest in 50 years / Nasdaq is red year-to-date Local / One year of Covid, ZAR 40c weaker, Top40 +20% (both from Jan20 levels) / Harmony out of Top40 and Resi10, replaced by Glencore / Rhodes Food update “..sales started recovering in January and February 2021…” after TigerBrands said January was poor? / Firstrand results / Spur results / Treasury expected to be another R30billion ahead on tax collections

Simon Shares A great research report on Blue Gem covering Renergen (JSE code: REN). What I really like about the report is that Keith shows you all his workings so you can make your own call on his working and decide. Spur (JSE code: SUR) were a horror show, no surprise it was the six months to end December with all the various lockdown levels. Two things struck me. They're positioning themselves well for the post-pandemic dining life, dark kitchens, exploring drive-through were feasible. But the biggie was how the company has changed in the last decade or so. It used to be Spur with a little pizza and sushi. But it really is now a collection of brands across different eating experiences and price points. My concern in the short term is a third and fourth wave. We can see as lockdown and alcohol bans get stricter their traffic decreases markedly and I am pretty sure that the rest of 2021 will see at least another two waves of the pandemic with the resulting harder lockdowns. Two awesome points from Nerina Vi

Offshore / US Durable Goods Orders Surge In January To Pre-COVID Highs / FB to pay Australian media / Latest Warren Buffet letter / Warren Buffett's $10 billion mistake: Precision Castparts / House passes $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill, sends it to Senate / Opec+ meets on Thursday Local / Budget / Sasol results (no rights issue) / TymeBank gets R1.6bn / Goldfields gets go-ahead to build 40MW solar plant at South Deep Mine / Implats results and dividend / Woolies results

Budget 2021 with AJM Tax I was again invited to moderate the AJM Tax post-budget panel with three excellent guests; Pieter Janse van Rensburg – AJM Tax Daniel Silke - Political Futures Consulting Adriaan Giessing – Seed Investments You can download the AJM Rax budget highlight booklet here. Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Upcoming events; Weekly, Wednesday at 5.30pm ~ Follow the Trader 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.  

Offshore / Australia fight with Google and Facebook / Uber loses appeal in UK, drivers are workers not independent contractors / Former Bank of England Governor Carney joins board of digital payments company Stripe / US return to Paris Agreement / US jobless claims up to four-week high / Gold under pressure as it trades at lowest levels since June Local / Sibanye Stillwater results / Truworths results / BHP results and monster dividend / Rand at 14.50 / Two interesting update titbits; Tigerbrands worried about January sales and Dis-Chem sees connivance malls much better than malls, but malls returning to normal. / Value Group delisting

Simon Shares Interesting titbit from TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) update "It is too early to conclude whether the lower consumer demand levels evident in the month of January reflect an even more challenging environment than what was experienced over the past year." Upcoming events; Weekly, Wednesday at 5.30pm ~ Follow the Trader 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes BHP* (JSE code: BHP) results were good, the cash flow was excellent with the dividend up 55% and payout ratio 85%. This is the benefit of commodity prices at higher levels but also due to low debt levels an almost zero capex requirements from most commodity miners. This raises three questions; Are we in a commodity supercycle? I think not, sure prices are at best levels in about five years. But that's off a low base rather than a super cycle. sure demand has picked up and global infrastructure spend is rising in res

Offshore / Disney results all about Disney+ / Tesla puts $1.5billion into Bitcoin / Janet Yellen warns of ‘explosion of risk’ from cryptocurrency markets / Bumble IPO with 60% gain on the first day / Platinum above $1,200 for first tine in six years / Freeze Sends Gas Soaring to $600 Local / More small-cap updates surprise to upside; Trellidor & Metrofile / Itatile results / ARB Holdings results, solid cash generation / Rand turned sixty yesterday / Cartrack coming back to earth after hitting 9000c / Steinhoff maybe resolving their legal woes / SARS collections ahead by R100billion  

Simon Shares Bitcoin* hits US$48,000 as Tesla declares they put US$1.5billion into the crypto. Platinum finally on the move and above US$1,200 for the first time since 2015. [caption id="attachment_24687" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Platinum weekly chart[/caption] Sibanye Stillwater* (JSE code: SSW) best illustrates the boom in mining profits. In 2019 they made R62million now 2020 they expect almost R30billion and over 1000c HEPS. Could we see a 500c dividend? Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) very solid update and the stock has recovered from their 2019 wobble. There is still two potential buyers, one stuck in Australia, truthfully, I would rather they remain potential and I will hold the stock. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; Weekly on Wednesday ~ Follow the Trader 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Should I sell the bounce? Depends why you bought the stock

Offshore / Nasdaq & S&P500 close Friday at all-time highs / Alphabet & Amazon results / US unemployment drops to 6.% / Jeff Bezos to step up to the executive chair, no longer CEO / Chinese short video company Kuaishou rose nearly 200% at the open on its debut in Hong Kong. Local / Ford investment of R15.8-billion into SA / Updates; Distell & Motus / Level 3 lite / Sibanye Stillwater update, R62million profit to almost R30billion / Load shedding

Simon Shares GameStop closed at US$90 on Tuesday. Jeff Bezos to step down as Amazon CEO. Apple knockout results. Ford to spend R15.8billion on local plant upgrade. Upcoming events; Weekly (Wednesday at 5.30pm) ~ Follow the Trader 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Booming SA Inc. consumers? We're seeing decent updates from local retailers so far this year, which is odd. Now let's be clear, decent not knock it out the park. Distell (JSE code: DGH) lost 41 days of sales in the second half of 2020 yet expects HEPS to be + 8.6% - +13.6%. Motus (JSE code: MTH) expect HEPS to be 0% - 5% higher, sent the stock up some 20% in two days. A few possible reasons; Lockdown so we have money to spend Working from home saving on transport Social grants increased 36One calculate some R100bn extra from social grants but also people taking money out of pension schemes & retrenchment packages. The risk here is that this is temporary, wh

Offshore / GameStop / Results; Apple & Tesla / Tencent listing Kuaishou (TikTok competitor) this week / US 4th quarter GDP at 4% / Davos online Local / IMF downgrades SA GDP 2021/2 growth forecast / Huge offers script to buyout AdaptIT / Anglo stable of updates (AGL, AMS & KIO) / Clicks update and closing Musica / Solid Sasol update / Johnson & Johnson vaccine, Aspen to produce 300m a year

Upcoming events; 18 February ~ JSE Power Hour: ETFs and tax-free investing GameStop perfect craziness Three things came together to push this stock up +20x in a week; Massive short position Option buying Markets love stories Simon dissects the three explains how it all played out and why it is perfectly legal. [caption id="attachment_24640" align="aligncenter" width="678"] GameStop daily chart[/caption] Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.  

Offshore / Netflix results / Weak IBM results / Tesla results this week / US GDP (4th quarter) / Federal Reserve rate statement on Thursday / Procter & Gamble solid results & increasing buy backs by $2billion to $18billion Local / Chris Griffith Kumba ==> Anglo Plat ==> now Goldfields / BAW selling motor division for R947m / MPC no surprise but vote was 3-2, with 2 for a hike. / Redefine to pass on 2020 dividend / Strong Richemont update

Simon Shares Trading updates from Truworths (JSE code: TRU) and Foschini (JSE code: TFG) both saw sales decrease for the period ending both saw sales down. But not down as much as expected and hence the stocks went wild. Truworths was up some 25% in two days. More than anything this is because expectations were dire. That said I'm not convinced, the lockdown was increased post the period end and as mentioned, sales and HEPS are expected to be down. We'll get more retail updates and over the following two weeks, with Pick n Pay the exception - they don't issues sales trading updates. On Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK), they announced that after eight-years CEO Richard Brasher will be stepping down after a solid turn around in the company. Local CPI came in at 3.1% for December leaving 2020 at 3.3%, the lowest since 2004 (1.4%) and 1969 (3.0%). The MPC will announce he repo rate Thursday, no change expected and with growth under pressure (load shedding, new lockdowns and late vaccine) I don't any increases in 2021

Offshore / Biden starts Wednesday, already has $1.9trillion stimulus plan / Japanese market at 3-decade highs / Chinese GDP +2.3% for 2020 / Rhodium above $20k / US won’t ban investing into Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu / JPMorgan results knock it out of the park Local / Brasher exits Pick n Pay / Murray & Roberts OZ contract / Truworths trading update / J&J vaccine details expected this week, good news for Aspen / Load shedding returns / MPC on Thursday

2021 predictions show Every year Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown do a predictions show. Three wild and woolly predictions for the markets followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead. Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year's predictions and you’ll find the 2020 predictions show here. Subscribe to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes The 2021 predictions are (listen for reasoning); Marc Ashton Not more than 10% of SA population (6million) vaccinated during 2021 Gold close 2021 +$2k Ford & GM out preform Tesla Top40 ~ green ZAR ~ stronger Keith McLachlan Resi10 in $ will beat Nasdaq US ten year real yield (less inflation) will be negative Eastern Cape house price inflation will beat Gauteng Top40 ~ green ZAR ~ stronger Simon Brown Russel 2000 beats S&P500 Resi10 beats Fini15 & Indi25 No US or ZA rate increases this year Top40 ~ green ZAR ~ stronger JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an i

Offshore / Tech wild year / Oil goes negative / Gold breaks $2,000 / Brexit / Tesla Local / Sasol / Top40 green for the year & just off all-time highs / Even the Rand recovered most of the losses and trades better than 5 years ago / Budget deficit / Lots of business rescue, but less than I expected

Simon Shares Trellidor* (JSE code: TRL), I've been buying. We've seen DIY stocks doing well and small SA Inc shares surprise to the upside and I think this could be one of them. Interim is end December so an update should arrive mid-February. Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results were really good. This stock was very expensive at listing and above 2400c in 2016 it was crazy. But price came down and earnings increased so now looking fairly priced and very well positioned in the low cost and passive space with even trading contributing around 25% to revenue. I received an email about being charged massive fees for a trade that happened over multiple days. This is not new and is how the JSE charges. Trades on one day, same stock and all buys or sells are bulked together and charged as one trade. But trades in separate days are each charged as a new trade and so the brokerage minimums hit and can hit hard, very hard. The way to avoid is when you get that SMS for first trade to adjust the price to ensure full quantity o