Simply Economics



A weekly economic recap of U.S. market activity and events.


  • UP 254: Fed toes tapering as other central banks stand pat.

    22/09/2021 Duración: 22min

    Earlier today the FOMC indicated that it will soon begin the, potentially protracted, process of normalising U.S. monetary policy. By contrast, on Tuesday the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China signaled that they are in no rush to follow suit and both the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are also seen holding steady on Thursday. Either economic cycles are now moving out of sync or at least one central bank has got it wrong.

  • UP 253: Fed tapering would mask slowing global growth

    25/08/2021 Duración: 29min

    Sub-zero readings on many of Econoday’s economic consensus divergence indices (ECDIs) confirm an unexpectedly large hit to global activity rates from the Delta variant. Price pressures may be easing slightly but the combination of slowing growth and above target inflation poses a real problem for policymakers. The team discuss the latest developments and their implications for policy in this month’s global podcast.

  • UP 252: RBNZ tightening in doubt as Covid clouds the global recovery

    17/08/2021 Duración: 15min

    An interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand looked nailed on today but Covid developments may now dictate otherwise. In any event, a tightening there would be an outlier. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest global economic developments that suggest policy rates elsewhere are still going nowhere in a hurry.

  • UP 251: US payrolls preview and the BoE’s QE call

    04/08/2021 Duración: 20min

    Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins look ahead to Friday’s U.S. employment report and discuss more general recovery prospects in the context of raw material shortages, the spreading Delta variant and sharply rising consumer prices. Thursday’s BoE MPC meeting and the possibility of an early end to QE as well as future potential changes at the Fed are also in focus.

  • UP 250: Are the PMIs offering accurate indications of the reopening economy?

    20/07/2021 Duración: 07min

    The combination of the rapidly spreading Delta variant and some slightly less dovish sounding central banks is giving stock market investors pause for thought. Jeremy Hawkins looks ahead to Thursday’s ECB meeting and considers whether the central bank can bolster confidence in a non-inflationary economic recovery in Europe.

  • UP 249: Are the PMIs offering accurate indications of the reopening economy?

    06/07/2021 Duración: 29min

    PMIs in Europe as well as similar business surveys in the US have been posting record scores in contrast to subsequent definitive data which have often been no better than mixed. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the importance of PMIs to policy makers and forecasters, looking at their sampling structure and methodology for explanations to the ongoing disconnect.

  • UP 248: Central banks stick to their guns

    16/06/2021 Duración: 37min

    Major dislocations between demand and supply continue to put upside pressure on final product prices but most central banks remain convinced that rising inflation will be short-lived. The team discusses the likelihood of future policy tightenings being delivered sooner rather than later.

  • UP 247: Demand soaring but inflation mixed; Covid reopenings uneven

    01/06/2021 Duración: 29min

    Global demand continues to recover more quickly than output which remains restrained by shortages of raw materials. For many countries the growth gap has yet to drive up final product prices but an exception may be the US where prices are indeed jumping as the country benefits from an early reopening that has yet to unfold in many other economies.

  • UP 246:Inflation yet to shift monetary policy

    19/05/2021 Duración: 26min

    The basic message from global central banks is holding, that inflation pressures now building will soon fade and that rate hikes are still well down the road.

  • UP 245: How and when to signal the policy shift

    27/04/2021 Duración: 27min

    Federal Reserve communications are approaching the inflection point on when to signal the withdrawal of stimulus. For Europe, this pivot is still more distant given lagging vaccination rates and lagging economic performance.

  • UP 243: Status quo for Fed and SNB; 'vaccine war' for UK-EU

    23/03/2021 Duración: 30min

    Wild bumps for US data are due to comparison distortions, an effect that is expected to be temporary and which would not derail Federal Reserve plans for extended stimulus. Steady policy for the Swiss National Bank, given a falling franc, is also the expectation. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the UK's performance amid developing tensions with the EU over vaccine production and availability.

  • UP 242: The Fed and BoE likely to hold policy steady; vaccine issues cloud Eurozone prospects

    16/03/2021 Duración: 29min

    Despite the recent rise in long rates, neither the Federal Reserve nor the Bank of England are likely to make any QE adjustments. Covid cases have been coming down and vaccination rates going up in both the US and UK, in sharp contrast to the Eurozone where the outlook is becoming more uncertain.

  • UP 240: Inflation climbing, yields jumping, policy in question

    04/03/2021 Duración: 35min

    With vaccines rolling out and Covid cases coming down, our team updates the outlook for inflation and long-term interest rates and what it may or may not mean for any changes in central bank policy.

  • UP 239: Inflation up, rates up; how to communicate policy change

    23/02/2021 Duración: 24min

    Inflation may still be well below target but it is on the rise as are long-term interest rates. How these factors are affecting the financial markets and monetary policy and what they mean for central-bank communication strategy are points of this week's discussion.

  • UP 238: QE as means to control exchange rates

    16/02/2021 Duración: 39min

    This week's topic is whether central banks may begin to increase or decrease QE as a means of controlling exchange rates and the related risks that such action might bring to financial market stability.

  • UP 237: The end of low inflation?

    09/02/2021 Duración: 30min

    Inflation expectations in the financial markets are rising quickly in contrast to actual inflation measures which are still subdued.

  • UP 236: Regional round-up and Covid-19 vaccination rates - the new forward-looking economic recovery metric

    03/02/2021 Duración: 31min

    Brian Jackson and Jeremy Hawkins pull together the latest economic trends and discuss the importance to financial markets of the relative pace of the vaccine rollout.

  • UP 235: Updates on the latest data and policy outlooks

    26/01/2021 Duración: 27min

    Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender assess the latest economic data from Europe and the US, including a sharp drop in UK retail indications and sharp gains for US home prices. GDP outlooks are also discussed as well as issues at play for coming central bank meetings.

  • UP 234: Asian data improving as Europe struggles; US labor market weak

    19/01/2021 Duración: 29min

    Our duo of Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender round-up recent data and discuss the outlook for pending data and upcoming central bank announcements. Themes include weakness in the US labor market, ECB lending worries as well as the separation between assessments of current conditions and expectations for future recovery.

  • UP 233: US job weakness severe and skewed; Covid updates from Europe

    12/01/2021 Duración: 22min

    Our team discusses the latest employment news from both the US and Canada, as well Covid counts and restrictions in Europe and what it may mean for first-quarter activity.

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