Simply Economics

Informações:

Sinopsis

A weekly economic recap of U.S. market activity and events.

Episodios

  • UP 264: A far from synchronised global recovery

    02/02/2022 Duración: 44min

    To varying degrees, inflation, geopolitical tensions and inevitably Covid continue to dictate investor behaviour in general. However, policy responses around the world have to respect what’s going on locally and national economic conditions differ markedly. The team look at the dislocations in economic cycles and their implications for financial markets in this month’s global podcast.

  • UP 263: Central bank round-up - what they did and what it means

    16/12/2021 Duración: 13min

    Following a raft of central bank announcements on Wednesday and today, Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what the policymakers did and what it all means for financial markets in 2022.

  • UP 262: A more aggressive Fed and 'Super Thursday'

    14/12/2021 Duración: 21min

    It's a big week for investors with the Fed expected to step up the pace of QE tapering on Wednesday ahead of what should be very different policy announcements from the SNB, BoE, ECB and BoJ (EST) all on 'Super Thursday'. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the key issues facing the decision-makers.

  • UP 261: An Omicron spanner in the works?

    07/12/2021 Duración: 32min

    Just when it seemed that the outlook for central bank policy was getting a little clearer, the arrival of the Omicron variant has cast a fresh cloud over the speed and extent to which QE and/or interest rates might be adjusted. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.

  • UP 260: Euro struggles as Powell renominated

    23/11/2021 Duración: 21min

    The dollar’s recent gains in part reflect euro weakness with the Eurozone unit now at multi-month lows against a range of currencies. Moreover, in the absence of a change in tone from the ECB, upcoming economic data and events could well reinforce the currency’s slide. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the medium-term outlook.

  • UP 258: Policy communication and central bank credibility

    09/11/2021 Duración: 22min

    Financial markets have become used to being forewarned by central banks about prospective changes to monetary policy. However, when such decisions are split, clear communication becomes much harder. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss last week’s announcements and how the Fed got it right and the BoE got it wrong.

  • UP 257: The turn in the policy cycle

    02/11/2021 Duración: 29min

    With inflation increasingly pulling the monetary policy strings, the Federal Reserve this week is expected to launch its QE tapering plan while the Bank of England becomes the first of the G10 central banks to actually raise its benchmark interest rate. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the outlook for monetary policy in the context of the latest and upcoming key economic data.

  • UP 256: Not so transitory inflation

    20/10/2021 Duración: 44min

    By and large, central bankers around the world now seem to accept that high inflation will last longer than originally expected. Most still seem to expect a return to more normal rates in 2022 but the recent sharp jump in energy costs has pulled forward many investors’ view of monetary tightening. Against a backdrop of slowing economic growth, this week’s global podcast considers the tricky decisions facing the policymakers.

  • UP 255: The Fed’s payroll path to tapering.

    05/10/2021 Duración: 24min

    Friday’s U.S. employment report is widely seen as the key that could unlock the door to Fed tapering. However, payrolls will still need to be strong, at least to a degree, or November’s FOMC meeting might yet turn out to be a damp squib. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins look at what’s expected and discuss the other potential market-moving data and events this week.

  • UP 254: Fed toes tapering as other central banks stand pat.

    22/09/2021 Duración: 22min

    Earlier today the FOMC indicated that it will soon begin the, potentially protracted, process of normalising U.S. monetary policy. By contrast, on Tuesday the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China signaled that they are in no rush to follow suit and both the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are also seen holding steady on Thursday. Either economic cycles are now moving out of sync or at least one central bank has got it wrong.

  • UP 253: Fed tapering would mask slowing global growth

    25/08/2021 Duración: 29min

    Sub-zero readings on many of Econoday’s economic consensus divergence indices (ECDIs) confirm an unexpectedly large hit to global activity rates from the Delta variant. Price pressures may be easing slightly but the combination of slowing growth and above target inflation poses a real problem for policymakers. The team discuss the latest developments and their implications for policy in this month’s global podcast.

  • UP 252: RBNZ tightening in doubt as Covid clouds the global recovery

    17/08/2021 Duración: 15min

    An interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand looked nailed on today but Covid developments may now dictate otherwise. In any event, a tightening there would be an outlier. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest global economic developments that suggest policy rates elsewhere are still going nowhere in a hurry.

  • UP 251: US payrolls preview and the BoE’s QE call

    04/08/2021 Duración: 20min

    Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins look ahead to Friday’s U.S. employment report and discuss more general recovery prospects in the context of raw material shortages, the spreading Delta variant and sharply rising consumer prices. Thursday’s BoE MPC meeting and the possibility of an early end to QE as well as future potential changes at the Fed are also in focus.

  • UP 250: Are the PMIs offering accurate indications of the reopening economy?

    20/07/2021 Duración: 07min

    The combination of the rapidly spreading Delta variant and some slightly less dovish sounding central banks is giving stock market investors pause for thought. Jeremy Hawkins looks ahead to Thursday’s ECB meeting and considers whether the central bank can bolster confidence in a non-inflationary economic recovery in Europe.

  • UP 249: Are the PMIs offering accurate indications of the reopening economy?

    06/07/2021 Duración: 29min

    PMIs in Europe as well as similar business surveys in the US have been posting record scores in contrast to subsequent definitive data which have often been no better than mixed. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the importance of PMIs to policy makers and forecasters, looking at their sampling structure and methodology for explanations to the ongoing disconnect.

  • UP 248: Central banks stick to their guns

    16/06/2021 Duración: 37min

    Major dislocations between demand and supply continue to put upside pressure on final product prices but most central banks remain convinced that rising inflation will be short-lived. The team discusses the likelihood of future policy tightenings being delivered sooner rather than later.

  • UP 247: Demand soaring but inflation mixed; Covid reopenings uneven

    01/06/2021 Duración: 29min

    Global demand continues to recover more quickly than output which remains restrained by shortages of raw materials. For many countries the growth gap has yet to drive up final product prices but an exception may be the US where prices are indeed jumping as the country benefits from an early reopening that has yet to unfold in many other economies.

  • UP 246:Inflation yet to shift monetary policy

    19/05/2021 Duración: 26min

    The basic message from global central banks is holding, that inflation pressures now building will soon fade and that rate hikes are still well down the road.

  • UP 245: How and when to signal the policy shift

    27/04/2021 Duración: 27min

    Federal Reserve communications are approaching the inflection point on when to signal the withdrawal of stimulus. For Europe, this pivot is still more distant given lagging vaccination rates and lagging economic performance.

  • UP 243: Status quo for Fed and SNB; 'vaccine war' for UK-EU

    23/03/2021 Duración: 30min

    Wild bumps for US data are due to comparison distortions, an effect that is expected to be temporary and which would not derail Federal Reserve plans for extended stimulus. Steady policy for the Swiss National Bank, given a falling franc, is also the expectation. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the UK's performance amid developing tensions with the EU over vaccine production and availability.

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